Visa Forecasts U.S. Holiday Spending to Rise 4.5% as Consumers Keep the Holidays a Priority
Key findings from VBEI’s 2026 U.S. Holiday Spending Outlook include:
-
U.S . holiday retail sales are forecast to rise 4.5% year over year, marking the strongest holiday sales growth since 2021. -
On average, consumers plan to spend
$777 on holiday gifts, up 5.6% from 2025, signaling continued willingness to spend even as shoppers remain value-conscious amid elevated inflation. - Physical gifts are winning a greater share of holiday budgets, as higher travel costs lead many consumers to prioritize merchandise over experiences.
The outlook points to continued consumer resilience, supported by solid income growth and household wealth, even as inflation influences where holiday dollars go. VBEI expects prices for holiday-related goods to rise approximately 3.4%, with inflation-adjusted holiday spending increasing 1.1%.
“Consumers are heading into the holidays with the capacity and willingness to spend, even if they’re being thoughtful about where those dollars go,” said
Consumers are spending more, even as they stay selective
Consumers say they plan to spend an average of
That willingness to spend comes as consumers continue to adapt to higher prices. Roughly one-third of consumers earning less than
Travel tops wish lists, but consumers are prioritizing physical gifts
Consumers may be dreaming about experiences, but their holiday budgets tell a more traditional story. More than half of survey respondents put travel and live events at the top of their holiday wish lists, yet only 15% say they are prioritizing spending on experiences, compared with 27% prioritizing physical gifts.
Higher travel costs are contributing to that disconnect. VBEI analysis of anonymized
That could work in retailers’ favor. Because VBEI’s holiday sales measure focuses on retail and excludes travel and dining, dollars that might otherwise have gone toward holiday trips could instead flow toward physical gifts and other merchandise.
A resilient consumer enters an uncertain season
Despite slower job creation, positive real income growth and elevated household wealth continue to support consumer spending heading into the holidays. At the same time, shoppers remain attentive to prices, reinforcing a holiday season defined by both willingness to spend and a continued focus on value.
“Consumers are still spending, but they’re making deliberate choices about where their holiday dollars go,” Brown said. “That combination of healthy spending and continued focus on value is likely to define this holiday season.”
Read the full 2026 U.S. Holiday Spending Outlook report: Home for the holidays: spending stays closer to home.
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Source: Visa Inc.